Methodology · HTML Copy Technical Methodology — STX Orbital

Technical Methodology

Transparency in orbital mechanics, API specifications, and screening limitations

Overview

STX Sentinel is a conjunction screening engine designed to provide satellite operators with automated risk assessment and maneuver decision support. This document describes our technical approach, data sources, computational methods, API specifications, and known limitations.

Important: STX Orbital provides decision-support tools, not operational commands. All maneuver decisions remain the sole responsibility of the spacecraft operator.

API Specifications

Current Endpoints

Endpoint Method Purpose Status
/api/screen POST Single TLE/CDM screening LIVE
/api/spacex/o2o POST O/O ephemeris screening (awaiting partner access) DEPLOYED
/api/watchtower GET/POST Asset monitoring management LIVE
/api/report/{job_id} GET PDF report generation LIVE

Request/Response Format

All endpoints accept and return JSON. Example screening request:

POST /api/screen Content-Type: application/json Authorization: Bearer {token} { "tle_line1": "1 25544U 98067A 24001.50000000 ...", "tle_line2": "2 25544 51.6400 ...", "mission_id": "OPERATOR-SAT-001" }
Response 200 OK { "status": "success", "conjunctions": [...], "risk_classification": "YELLOW", "trajectory_uuid": "...", // Q1 2026 "screening_timestamp": "2025-12-02T14:30:00Z" }

Planned API Enhancements

Feature Description Timeline
OpenAPI 3.0 Spec Machine-readable API documentation Q1 2026
Trajectory UUID Passthrough of operator tracking IDs Q1 2026
Upload Types Definitive/predictive ephemeris tagging Q1 2026
Per-Client Rate Limits Configurable throttling with burst allowance Q1 2026
Maneuver Claim Endpoint POST responsibility claims, receive acknowledgments Q2 2026
Bulk Fleet Screening 1000+ objects per request with async delivery Q3 2026

Authentication

Current: Bearer Token (TLS 1.3)

API requests are authenticated via bearer tokens transmitted over TLS 1.3 encrypted connections. Tokens are issued per-organization and support role-based access controls.

Authorization: Bearer eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIs...

Planned: mTLS (Q2 2026)

Mutual TLS client certificate authentication for enterprise integrations requiring zero-trust patterns. Operators provide their own certificates; we validate against registered certificate authorities.

Enterprise Authentication Roadmap

  • Q2 2026: mTLS support for dedicated integrations
  • Q2 2026: SAML/SSO for enterprise identity providers
  • Q4 2026+: CAC/PIV for government deployments

Orbital Propagation

SGP4/SDP4 Models

STX Sentinel uses the Simplified General Perturbations (SGP4) and Simplified Deep-space Perturbations (SDP4) models for orbital propagation. These are the standard analytical models used with Two-Line Element sets (TLEs) and are implemented via the Skyfield library.

Propagation Characteristics

  • LEO accuracy: ~1-3 km position error at 7-day propagation (dependent on TLE age and atmospheric conditions)
  • MEO/GEO accuracy: Higher accuracy due to reduced atmospheric drag uncertainty
  • Propagation window: Default 7-day forward propagation for conjunction screening
  • Time step: Adaptive stepping with fine resolution near predicted closest approach

Known Propagation Limitations

  • TLE age sensitivity: Accuracy degrades significantly with stale TLEs. We recommend TLEs less than 24 hours old for critical screening.
  • Atmospheric drag: Solar activity and atmospheric density variations introduce uncertainty, particularly for objects below 500 km altitude.
  • Maneuver ambiguity: Active spacecraft may have maneuvered since TLE generation. Sentinel cannot predict or detect uncommanded maneuvers.
  • No numerical integration (current): SGP4 is an analytical model, not a high-fidelity numerical integrator. For sub-kilometer precision, operators should use authoritative CDM data or wait for our high-fidelity option (Q4 2026+).

High-Fidelity Propagation (Q4 2026+)

Planned optional numerical integration with perturbation modeling:

  • J2/J3/J4 geopotential harmonics
  • Atmospheric drag (NRLMSISE-00 density model)
  • Solar radiation pressure with eclipse modeling
  • Third-body perturbations (Sun/Moon)

Covariance Modeling

⚠ Heuristic Approach: When screening TLE-derived ephemeris, Sentinel uses heuristic covariance estimates rather than propagated state covariance matrices. This is a known limitation.

TLE Mode (Heuristic)

Two-Line Elements do not include covariance information. When processing TLEs, Sentinel applies default positional uncertainty values based on object classification:

MANNED ASSETS (ISS, CSS): σ = 0.5 km COMMERCIAL UNMANNED: σ = 1.0 km MEGA-CONSTELLATION: σ = 2.0 km DEBRIS / UNKNOWN: σ = 3.0 km

These values are conservative defaults. Actual uncertainty varies significantly based on TLE age, orbital regime, and atmospheric conditions.

CDM Mode (Authoritative)

When processing CCSDS Conjunction Data Messages, Sentinel extracts the embedded covariance matrices directly:

  • RTN (Radial/Transverse/Normal) covariance from CDM
  • Combined covariance at TCA for Pc computation
  • No heuristic fallback — CDM covariance is used as-is

Covariance Propagation (Q3 2026)

Planned enhancement: time-based covariance growth models that account for process noise over extended prediction windows. This addresses the limitation of static covariance snapshots when TCA is days from epoch.

Risk Classification

Tiered Thresholds

Sentinel applies different risk thresholds based on object classification. Higher-value assets (manned stations) trigger alerts at larger miss distances than debris-on-debris encounters.

Manned Assets (ISS, CSS, Crew Dragon)

RED: < 4 km or Pc > 1e-6
YELLOW: < 10 km or Pc > 1e-7
GREEN: > 10 km

Commercial Unmanned

RED: < 1 km or Pc > 1e-5
YELLOW: < 5 km or Pc > 1e-6
GREEN: > 5 km

Mega-Constellation (Starlink, OneWeb, Kuiper)

RED: < 5 km or Pc > 1e-4
YELLOW: < 20 km or Pc > 1e-5
GREEN: > 20 km

Custom thresholds per-asset are planned for Q3 2026. Contact us for interim custom configurations.

Interoperability & O/O Coordination

Current Capabilities

STX Sentinel is designed to integrate into existing operator coordination workflows:

  • CCSDS CDM processing: Native parsing of official conjunction data messages
  • JSON response format: Machine-readable output for automated downstream processing
  • PDF export: Human-readable compliance documentation

O/O Integration (Infrastructure Deployed)

Dedicated REST endpoint (/api/spacex/o2o) is deployed and awaiting partner data access agreements. Architecture supports enhanced ephemeris ingestion for higher-fidelity constellation screening upon integration.

Coordination Workflow (Q2 2026)

Planned two-way coordination support:

CURRENT (One-Way): Operator TLE → Sentinel Screen → Risk Report PLANNED (Round-Trip): Operator TLE → Sentinel Screen → Risk Alert ↓ POST /api/claim ← Operator claims maneuver responsibility ↓ GET /api/ack → Acknowledgment + coordination record

This enables full responsibility handoff tracking for multi-party conjunction events, particularly relevant for mega-constellation operators.

Integration Approach

We build to operator specs, not the other way around. If you have an existing coordination endpoint or workflow, we'll adapt. Contact us with your integration requirements.

Data Sources

Orbital Catalog

STX Sentinel maintains a synchronized catalog of tracked objects sourced from Space-Track.org (U.S. Space Force 18th Space Defense Squadron public data).

Sync frequency Every 8 hours via automated cron job
Full catalog ~60,000 tracked objects
Priority screening set Up to 10,000 objects per scan (dynamically filtered)
Data format Three-Line Element sets (3LE)

⚠ Catalog-Only Screening: Sentinel currently screens operator ephemeris against the public Space-Track catalog only. Operators with proprietary high-precision ephemeris (O/O data) cannot yet inject their own state vectors. This capability is planned for Q2 2026 — see roadmap.

Screening Architecture

STX Sentinel uses a multi-stage filtering pipeline to efficiently screen against the full tracked object catalog while returning only actionable conjunction data.

Stage 1: Orbital Regime Filter

All 60,000+ catalog objects are evaluated against the primary spacecraft's orbital parameters. Objects outside the conjunction-feasible regime are excluded:

  • Altitude filter: Perigee/apogee must overlap within ±80 km
  • Inclination filter: Must be within ±20° (or retrograde equivalent)

Result: Typically 5,000–20,000 candidates depending on the primary's orbital shell.

Stage 2: Priority Sorting

Filtered candidates are sorted by operational risk priority:

Priority Category Examples
0 (Highest) Crewed Vehicles ISS (25544), Tiangong/CSS (48274)
1 Known Debris Fields Cosmos-2251, Fengyun-1C fragments
2 High-Eccentricity Objects Molniya debris, GTO objects (e > 0.3)
3 Active Constellations Starlink, OneWeb, Planet (NORAD 44000–75000)
4 Remainder Dormant payloads, rocket bodies, misc. debris

Objects like dormant Iridium satellites, spent boosters, and mission-related debris (tools, panels) are screened if they pass the orbital filter — they're in Priority 4, not excluded.

Stage 3: Conjunction Screening

The top 10,000 priority-sorted candidates (or all candidates if fewer) are propagated and screened:

  • SGP4/SDP4 propagation over 7-day window
  • Coarse distance check (500 km threshold)
  • Fine geometry evaluation at close approach
  • Radial/In-Track/Cross-Track (R/I/C) computation*
  • Proximity Score calculation (see below)

*R/I/C geometry is derived from ECI position differences at TCA. This is a first-order approximation suitable for decision support; it does not perform a full rotation into the primary's orbital reference frame. For authoritative geometry, request a CDM from 18 SDS.

Stage 4: Actionable Filtering

Only operationally relevant conjunctions are returned to the operator:

  • RED: Always returned (below red threshold)
  • YELLOW with Proximity Score > 50: Returned (close to action threshold)
  • YELLOW with Proximity Score ≤ 50: Filtered (distant, low priority)
  • GREEN: Filtered (no action required)

Result: Typically 5–50 actionable threats instead of thousands of low-priority alerts.

Full Pipeline Example

60,000+ catalog objects ↓ Orbital Filter (altitude/inclination match) ~8,000 candidates in orbital regime ↓ Priority Sort (manned → debris → constellations → rest) Screen top 10,000 (or all 8,000 in this case) ↓ Actionable Filter (RED or Proximity > 50) 18 actionable threats returned to operator

Proximity Score vs. Collision Probability

STX Sentinel uses two different metrics depending on the data source:

TLE Screening Mode: Proximity Score (0–100)

When screening TLEs against the catalog, Sentinel computes a Proximity Score — a prioritization metric based on miss distance relative to operational thresholds.

Score = 100 At or below RED threshold (immediate action)
Score = 50–99 Within YELLOW zone (elevated monitoring)
Score < 50 Beyond YELLOW threshold (routine awareness)

⚠ Not a Collision Probability: Proximity Score is a screening metric for prioritization. It is NOT a physics-based probability of collision (Pc). For authoritative Pc values, request a CDM from 18th Space Defense Squadron.

CDM Analysis Mode: Official Pc

When processing CCSDS Conjunction Data Messages, Sentinel displays the official collision probability (Pc) computed by 18 SDS using full covariance matrices. This value is extracted directly from the CDM — Sentinel does not recalculate it.

CDM-derived Pc values are marked with an "18 SDS" badge in the UI and reports to indicate authoritative provenance.

What Sentinel Is Not

To ensure appropriate use, operators should understand Sentinel's boundaries:

  • Not a replacement for 18 SDS CDMs: Official Conjunction Data Messages remain the authoritative source for collision assessment. Sentinel is a supplementary screening layer.
  • Not a command-and-control system: Sentinel provides decision support and recommendations. It does not execute maneuvers or interface with spacecraft command systems.
  • Not a debris catalog: Sentinel does not track untracked debris or provide space situational awareness beyond the public 18 SDS catalog.
  • Not certified for crewed operations: Manned spacecraft operations should rely on primary conjunction assessment from NASA, ESA, or equivalent space agencies.

Validation & Benchmarks

We're building validation infrastructure to provide operators with confidence metrics:

Benchmark Status Target
Screening latency (single object) LIVE < 5 seconds
Batch fleet screening LIVE Up to 100 TLEs per request
CDM cross-validation Q3 2026 Published accuracy vs 18 SDS CDMs
Constellation-scale benchmark Q3 2026 1000+ object screening metrics

Batch screening latency scales with fleet size and catalog depth. Operators interested in running controlled benchmarks against their data can contact us to arrange validation testing.

Technical Questions & Integration

For detailed technical inquiries about Sentinel's methodology, API integration, custom threshold configuration, or enterprise authentication requirements:

[email protected]

We're happy to share draft API schemas, discuss integration requirements, or scope custom capabilities for your timeline.

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